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US stock futures pulled back Thursday morning, giving up a portion of Wednesday’s euphoric rally as the US-Iran truce unravelled almost as quickly as it was announced. The S&P 500 had climbed 2.5% Wednesday. The Dow surged over 1,300 points, its best single session since April 2025. Thursday morning, futures markets are quietly handing some of that back.
What changed? Iran’s parliamentary speaker publicly accused Washington of violating the ceasefire terms before the ink was even dry, citing Israel’s continued operations in Lebanon, a drone in Iranian airspace, and what Tehran called a denial of its right to enrich uranium. Trump responded by warning any breach would trigger a military response larger than anything previously seen, while confirming US forces would remain deployed around Iran until full compliance was demonstrated. Two sides, one agreement, and already a public fight over whether it means anything.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows, remains effectively closed. Some dry cargo vessels have made the crossing. Oil tankers have not. Goldman Sachs has already run the numbers: Brent crude would average above $100 a barrel through 2026 if the strait stays blocked for another month. That scenario is looking less hypothetical by the hour.
Here is where markets stood Thursday morning:
| Asset | Move | Level |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Futures | -0.3% | |
| Nasdaq 100 Futures | -0.2% | |
| Dow Futures | -0.4% | -175 pts |
| Stoxx Europe 600 | -0.6% | |
| WTI Crude | +5.4% | $99.54/bbl |
| Brent Crude | +4.0% | $98.54/bbl |
| Spot Gold | +0.5% | $4,744.50/oz |
| Bitcoin | -0.2% | $71,212 |
| Ether | -1.3% | $2,180 |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | flat | 4.29% |
| Euro | +0.2% | $1.1683 |
| Japanese Yen | -0.3% | 159.05/$ |
The oil move is doing the most damage. Rising crude is effectively a tax on everything downstream. Airlines took the most visible hit in premarket trading. Alaska Air dropped roughly 2%, while United, American, and Delta each fell around 1%. The correlation is almost mechanical at this point.
On the economic front, the data did not help either.
February core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% month on month and 3% year over year, landing exactly in line with expectations. That alignment with forecasts might sound reassuring until you consider the timing. February predates the full escalation of the Middle East conflict. The numbers reflect a world that no longer quite exists, and the months ahead will only add pressure. Jobless claims for the week ended April 4 came in at 219,000, above the 210,000 consensus estimate, adding a small but notable wrinkle to what had otherwise looked like a stable labor market.
The Fed finds itself in a particularly uncomfortable spot. Inflation was running hot before the crisis. Energy prices were already sticky. Cutting rates risks stoking price pressures further. Holding steady risks watching growth soften in real time. There is no clean path through this.
A few corporate moves worth tracking:
CoreWeave announced a $21 billion deal to supply cloud computing capacity to Meta Platforms through 2032, including early deployments of NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform. Shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading. For a company that only listed in late March, locking in a revenue commitment of this scale quiets a lot of the valuation skepticism that followed its IPO.
Datadog climbed 2.3% after Guggenheim upgraded it to buy, arguing the company sits at the most valuable intersection of AI growth: more artificial intelligence means more data, and more data means more need for what Datadog sells.
Constellation Brands, maker of Modelo and Corona, slipped after withdrawing its 2028 guidance entirely and flagging subdued demand. Its full-year earnings outlook missed expectations. Pulling multi-year guidance is rarely a signal of confidence.
Wednesday felt like relief. Thursday feels like recalibration. The ceasefire exists on paper. The strait remains closed in practice. Oil is approaching triple digits. And inflation was already running too hot before any of this started. Markets are not in freefall, but the easy optimism of 48 hours ago has given way to something more honest about what the next few weeks actually look like.
