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The World in a Week: How Major Markets Moved
United States | U.S. markets ended mixed as earnings season began. The Russell 2000 rose 2.0% on the week, while the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq declined 0.3%. Bank earnings drove mixed reactions, while TSMC’s strong results lifted AI-linked stocks. Core CPI slowed to 2.6% YoY, the lowest since March 2021, while producer prices rose 3.0% YoY, led by energy.
Europe | The STOXX Europe 600 gained 0.8%, supported by better economic data. Germany’s GDP grew 0.2% in 2025, ending a two-year recession, while eurozone industrial output rose 0.7% in November, marking a third straight monthly increase. France lagged, with the CAC 40 down 1.2%.
Japan | Japanese equities rallied, with the Nikkei 225 up 5% and TOPIX gaining 4.1%, trading near record highs. The yen was volatile but ended near JPY 158 per dollar. The 10-year JGB yield rose to 2.18%, reflecting concerns around higher fiscal spending.
China | Mainland markets slipped after tighter margin rules, with the CSI 300 down 0.6%. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.3%. December exports grew 6.6% YoY, and China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025.
India | Indian benchmarks ended flat. The Nifty 50 rose 0.6% for the week, while the Sensex rose 0.5%. IT stocks gained 2.8% on strong earnings, while foreign investors sold about $2.1 billion of equities in January.
Commodities | Brent crude hovered in the low $60s, while gold remained elevated. Industrial metals rose, supporting global metals stocks.
Stock market closing data for the week of Jan 12 to Jan 16, 2026
Index information: STOXX 600 (tracks 600 large, mid- & small-cap EU firms), DAX (top 40 German blue chips), CAC 40 (leading French stocks), Nikkei 225 (225 top Japanese stocks), CSI 300 & SSEC (mainland China A-shares), and Hang Seng (large-cap Hong Kong-listed firms). For these indices, we track 1-week returns to capture how global sentiment is shifting.
News Summaries
Netflix is turning Hollywood supply
Netflix Inc. has secured global post theatrical streaming rights for Sony Pictures films under a multi-year deal that runs through 2032. The reported value is about $7 billion. Sony films will appear on Netflix after theaters and pay per view, with a full global rollout by early 2029.
This does not change how films are released. It just changes who controls the second window.
So in all honesty, Netflix is paying for certainty. A steady pipeline of big studio films arriving year after year matters more than chasing individual hits. With over 300 million subscribers, Netflix can absorb long-dated content commitments that smaller platforms cannot.
The important signal is scale.
Netflix already has similar arrangements with Universal, and the Sony deal deepens that strategy. Each agreement reduces content risk and makes Netflix the default destination once theatrical economics are done.
To put this into perspective, when long-term content deals keep stacking up in one place, that place becomes the centre of the ecosystem.
ASML is where AI spending finally shows up
Morgan Stanley says ASML Holding NV could rally as much as 70% in its most optimistic scenario.
The logic is simple.
If AI demand is real and durable, the pressure shows up first in chipmaking tools.
The bank turned more confident after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. signaled that AI driven spending is not slowing. Foundry and memory capex expectations for 2027 are rising, China demand has held up better than feared, and memory pricing is improving. All of this directly feeds into ASML’s order book.
ASML shares are already up about 15% this year, yet Morgan Stanley still sees upside because profits are still catching up. In their bull case, earnings could reach about €46 per share in 2027, nearly double 2025 levels. That is why the debate is not about valuation today. It is about whether chipmakers keep building capacity.
In cycles like this, the cleanest signal is equipment spending. If AI demand were slowing, ASML would feel it first. So far, it has not.
European tech is winning because the picks and shovels finally matter
European stocks are outperforming the US this year, with technology leading the move. The Stoxx Europe 600 Technology sector is up about 10% in January, while US tech is largely flat. The driver is not software. It is chip equipment.
Companies like ASML Holding NV, ASM International, and BE Semiconductor sit at the core of this rally. They make up a large share of European tech indices and supply the tools needed to build advanced AI chips.
The shift gained momentum after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. raised its capital spending outlook. TSMC expects around 30% growth in capex for 2026 and signaled that elevated spending could last for years. That matters because AI demand becomes durable only when chipmakers commit to building capacity.
For much of the AI boom, investors focused on chip designers. Equipment makers lagged. That is now changing. When AI turns into factories, not just models, Europe’s chip gear companies sit right at the center of the story.
Key Headlines of the Week
TSMC Keeps Cutting-Edge Chips at Home, Speeds Up US Expansion | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said its most advanced chipmaking technologies will remain in Taiwan, while stabilized processes will be transferred faster to the US. The company plans record capital spending of over $52 billion this year to ease AI-driven supply constraints, reinforcing its conviction in sustained AI demand.
Replit Nears $9B Valuation as AI Coding Race Intensifies | Replit Inc. is in talks to raise about $400 million, potentially tripling its valuation to $9 billion. The funding reflects strong investor interest in AI tools that automate software development, even as competition from large tech firms and well-funded startups continues to grow.
BlackRock Raises $12.5B With Microsoft to Fund AI Infrastructure | BlackRock Inc. has raised $12.5 billion as part of its partnership with Microsoft Corp. to finance data centers and energy infrastructure. The initiative moves the group closer to its $30 billion target, underscoring the scale of capital flowing into AI-related assets.
