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The World in a Week: How Major Markets Moved
United States | Stocks rose despite a government shutdown, as weak ADP jobs data boosted bets on October rate cuts. Tech and small caps outperformed. Oil fell 7% on OPEC+ output plans, while gold and copper rallied.
Europe | The STOXX 600* hit a record, up 2.9%, on tech gains and rate-cut hopes. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC climbed over 2.5%. Eurozone inflation ticked up to 2.2%, but the ECB called risks “contained.” Unemployment edged to 6.3% as confidence improved.
Asia | Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.9% while the yen strengthened to 147.3 per dollar. The Bank of Japan signaled another rate hike this year. In China, markets rose in a holiday-shortened week, with Golden Week spending and AI optimism lifting sentiment. The Hang Seng added nearly 4%.
India | The RBI held rates at 5.5%, citing resilient growth and easing inflation, though base effects may push prices higher later.
Stock market closing data for the week of Sep 29 to Oct 3, 2025
Index information: STOXX 600 (tracks 600 large, mid & small-cap EU firms), DAX (top 40 German blue chips), CAC 40 (leading French stocks),Nikkei 225 (225 top Japanese stocks), CSI 300 & SSEC (mainland China A-shares), and Hang Seng (large-cap Hong Kong-listed firms). For these indices, we track 1-week returns to capture how global sentiment is shifting.
News Summaries
OpenAI Becomes World’s Most Valuable Startup at $500 Billion
OpenAI has completed a secondary share sale valuing the company at $500 billion, surpassing Elon Musk’s SpaceX to become the world’s largest startup. Current and former employees sold about $6.6 billion worth of stock to investors including Thrive Capital, SoftBank, Dragoneer, Abu Dhabi’s MGX and T. Rowe Price.
The milestone comes less than a year after OpenAI’s previous $300 billion valuation, underlining the intense demand for artificial intelligence exposure. Despite still being unprofitable, OpenAI has signed massive infrastructure deals with partners such as Oracle and SK Hynix, while also releasing its most powerful GPT-5 model in August.
The funding frenzy reflects investor belief that AI will transform industries at a scale requiring trillions of dollars in data center and chip spending. Secondary sales are also a way to retain talent, as rivals like Meta have been offering nine-figure pay packages to lure researchers.
OpenAI is in talks with Microsoft to restructure into a more traditional for-profit model, while still being overseen by its nonprofit board. The company’s future will depend not only on its technological edge, but also on its ability to keep top researchers from defecting in an increasingly competitive AI landscape.
Chipmakers Add $200 Billion in Value as AI Frenzy Builds
Global chipmakers saw their market value surge as investors chased artificial intelligence exposure, adding over $200 billion in a single session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and a benchmark tracking Asian chip stocks both hit record levels, reflecting a wave of optimism following OpenAI’s $500 billion valuation and new supply agreements with Korean manufacturers.
In Seoul, SK Hynix gained 10% and Samsung Electronics rose 3.5%, lifting the Kospi Index to an all-time high. European chip-equipment firms also rallied, with ASML climbing nearly 5% and peers ASM International and BE Semiconductor advancing. Analysts say the rally is being driven by “fear of missing out,” with concerns about a potential bubble taking a back seat.
Valuations are now stretched: Asia’s chip gauge trades at 19 times forward earnings and the SOX Index at 27 times, levels close to previous peaks. Still, investor enthusiasm remains strong. Chinese technology giants, backed by government support and fresh AI spending plans from Alibaba and Huawei, have pushed the Hang Seng Tech Index up nearly 50% this year.
OpenAI’s Sam Altman is continuing talks in Asia, with meetings planned in Taipei with TSMC and Hon Hai Precision. For now, investors believe that the scale of AI infrastructure demand justifies the boom, even as risks of overbuilding and revenue shortfalls linger.
AI Swallows Half of Global VC Dollars
The venture world has made its priorities clear: artificial intelligence is no longer just a sector, it is the sector. New data from PitchBook shows that more than half of all venture capital invested in 2025 has gone into AI, a record shift in how global dollars are being deployed.
The numbers are staggering. Out of nearly $367 billion invested so far this year, AI alone accounted for $192.7 billion. In the US, the tilt is even more pronounced, with almost two-thirds of venture dollars backing AI companies. By comparison, other categories of startups are enduring their quietest fundraising cycle in years.
The boom has been concentrated at the top. Household names like Anthropic and xAI are raising billions at a time, while smaller firms especially those outside AI find doors closed. Venture funds themselves are shrinking: only 823 firms raised fresh capital this year, compared to more than 4,400 in 2022.
This is not just a funding story; it is a map of where conviction lives in the global innovation economy. AI has become the filter: investors ask first whether a startup has a credible AI story, and if not, the conversation is often over.
From the World of Crypto
Robinhood’s Big Bet: Tokenization and Prediction Markets
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told the Token2049 conference that by 2030 most major markets will have rules for tokenization.
His point was simple: stablecoins have already shown how digital rails can move money globally; extending that to stocks, bonds, and real estate is just a matter of regulation. Markets outside the U.S. may get there faster, since they have more to gain by leapfrogging old systems.
At the same time, Robinhood is leaning into prediction markets, where over 4 billion contracts have been traded on elections, sports, culture, and even AI. Critics call it gambling, but in practice these markets act like real-time polls of crowd expectations.
Together, tokenization and prediction markets show where Robinhood is placing its chips: a future where finance, crypto, and culture merge into one tradable layer.
Key Headlines of the Week
Micron Powers the AI Boom | Micron’s stock has surged 91% YTD, emerging as a quiet winner of the AI rally. Its high-bandwidth memory chips are now essential for AI servers, driving record revenues and sold-out capacity. In this week’s newsletter, we discuss whether Micron’s momentum can hold as AI demand stretches well beyond GPUs.
Apple Faces Rare Bearish Call | Jefferies cut Apple to underperform, warning that expectations for iPhone upgrades are “excessive.” The analyst sees limited appetite for a $2,000 foldable model and trimmed the price target by 20%+. Apple is now the least-loved megacap after Tesla, though 57% of analysts still recommend buying.
Stockholm Leads Europe’s IPO Race | Sweden has raised $6.8B in IPOs this year, more than any other European market, with Verisure set to mark the biggest listing since Porsche. Local funds and retail investors are fueling demand, making Stockholm a rare bright spot as London and Frankfurt lag. The model highlights how deep equity culture can revive capital markets.
