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In today’s edition,
- Global trade reset
- ByteDance’s balancing act
- Apple’s $300 price rise
- TCS feels the chill
- Ripple’s ETF gamble
Market Snapshot
U.S. stocks staged a sharp rebound this week after a volatile start, driven by trade-related headlines. President Trump’s midweek announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries triggered a strong rally, with the Nasdaq rising 11.66% to 16,724.46, the S&P 500 up 8.27% to 5,363.36, and the Dow gaining 6.16% to 40,212.71. However, China was excluded from the pause, and new tariffs as high as 145% were introduced, prompting retaliatory measures that dampened sentiment later in the week.
The Fed’s March meeting minutes reflected a cautious stance, citing rising inflation risks from tariffs and uncertainty around the broader economic outlook. While core CPI data showed signs of cooling, up just 0.1% in March, with annual core inflation at 2.8%, consumer sentiment declined sharply.
Bond yields jumped, with the 10-year Treasury crossing 4.5%, as rate cut expectations shifted. Despite the week’s substantial equity gains, markets remain sensitive to trade policy shifts, especially as U.S.-China tensions escalate.
Stock market closing data for the week of Apr 7th to Apr 11th, 2025
Special Coverage: Tariff Nation vs. Factory of the World
The U.S.-China trade relationship is entering a new and more disruptive phase.
With President Trump raising tariffs on Chinese imports to an average of 145%, the friction between the world’s two largest economies is no longer a policy threat, it’s becoming operational.
Already, we’re seeing real effects: container bookings on the U.S.-China route are down 25% from late March, American importers are freezing shipments, and factories in southern China are placing workers on leave as demand vanishes.
The scale of trade at risk is significant.
In 2024, the U.S. imported $438.9 billion worth of goods from China and exported $143.5 billion in return. This imbalance, long cited by Trump as a reason for tariffs, is precisely what the new measures aim to address.
However, the objective is to reduce dependency on China and support domestic production; the short-term result is a hit to businesses that have spent decades building supply chains around cheap Chinese manufacturing.
JPMorgan estimates the recent tariffs amount to a $300 billion tax hike on the U.S. economy. This comes at a sensitive moment: inflation has cooled, but price levels remain high, and consumer sentiment is shaky.
Many companies that manufacture in China are already seeing orders canceled or being asked for discounts of over 30% to offset the new costs. The U.S. may be attempting to revive domestic manufacturing, but firms remain wary of shifting production to the U.S. entirely, citing labor shortages, high costs, and policy uncertainty.
For China, the stakes are equally high.
Exports have been a crucial pillar of economic stability, especially as domestic consumption remains weak and the property market continues to struggle. Analysts at HSBC expect these tariffs to shave 1.5–2 percentage points off GDP growth in 2025. Goldman Sachs estimates that up to 20 million factory jobs in China depend on demand from American consumers.
As more orders get canceled, local governments are exploring subsidies and support mechanisms, but a deeper pivot towards consumption-driven growth will take years and structural reforms.
This isn’t just about two governments clashing over trade balances; it’s about the architecture of global commerce being slowly rewritten. The efficiency gains of decades-long supply chains are being sacrificed for political and strategic goals. In some ways, the decoupling is already here. Companies are being forced to diversify sourcing, delay shipments, or pass costs on to consumers.
This is what a global reset looks like: fragmented supply lines, price volatility, production relocations, and businesses making difficult trade-offs between cost, reliability, and geopolitics. For now, both economies may struggle to fully insulate themselves from the ripple effects, but over time, the decisions made in this moment will define who adjusts, who stalls, and who gets left behind.
News Summaries
ByteDance earned $155 billion in revenue in 2024, a 29% rise. The focus is on TikTok, which saw overseas sales jump 63% to $39 billion. This now makes up a quarter of total revenue. The company’s global success helped balance slower growth in China. There, Douyin is slowing down due to economic challenges. Profits reached $33 billion, but growth has slowed compared to 2023’s rapid pace. The US poses the biggest geopolitical risk for ByteDance. It faces pressure to sell TikTok, with bids from Amazon and AppLovin. The company must navigate between Washington and Beijing carefully. Cross-border e-commerce also faces new tariff threats as ByteDance expands in the US. At the same time, it’s exploring AI, launching products like Doubao to catch the next tech trend. Despite these challenges, ByteDance is valued between $312 billion and $400 billion. If TikTok survives the political storm, it could become a rare Chinese tech firm with a truly global presence.
To cushion the impact of Trump’s new 54% tariffs on Chinese goods, Apple is shifting more iPhone shipments from India to the U.S., where the duty is lower at 26%. With the iPhone 16 Pro’s production cost at $550, a full China tariff could add $300, squeezing margins. Apple is expected to make 25 million iPhones in India this year—enough to cover half of U.S. demand if redirected, according to BofA. But this is a stopgap while Apple seeks a tariff exemption, like it did under Trump’s earlier term. Manufacturing in the U.S. remains unviable—analysts peg the cost of a locally made iPhone at $3,500. Vietnam, another hub, faces a 46% tariff, narrowing options further. Despite diversifying assembly, Apple’s core supply chain still runs through China. The bigger question now is not just where the iPhone is made, but how long Apple can shield users from the costs of geopolitics.
TCS reported Q4 revenue of ₹644.8 billion and a net profit of ₹122.24 billion ($1.4B). This missed the analyst’s estimate of ₹127.7 billion. Global clients cut back on discretionary IT spending due to rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and tariff concerns. Although GenAI and Agentic AI services saw strong demand, CEO K. Krithivasan stated that earlier optimism faded because of project delays, not cancellations. TCS shares dropped 21% in 2024, similar to Infosys and Wipro. Analysts highlighted a 2.5% constant-currency growth, below the expected 4%. This suggests cautious tech budgets. While AI momentum continues, India’s $280B IT sector is under pressure. The recovery won’t come from earnings beats; it will depend on when global tech buyers regain confidence.
From the World of Crypto
XRP is the native token of the XRP Ledger. It is built for quick and low-cost cross-border payments. Ripple, a blockchain company, is closely tied to XRP. Ripple creates payment and settlement systems for financial institutions. Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, XRP is not for retail speculation. Its main use is value transfer at scale, especially between banks and payment providers. It now supports tokenized financial systems.
On April 8, XRP reached a milestone with the launch of its first U.S.-listed ETF, the Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (XXRP). It traded $5 million on its first day. This is a solid start but still 200 times smaller than BlackRock’s debut Bitcoin ETF. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas called the structure “odd” because it’s a leveraged ETF instead of a spot ETF. However, he thinks spot approval could come soon due to recent SEC signals.
That same day, Ripple announced it would acquire Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. Hidden Road is a global prime broker that clears $3 trillion each year across FX, crypto, and derivatives. Ripple plans to integrate RLUSD, its stablecoin, into Hidden Road’s collateral system. This move aims to improve speed and reduce friction for over $10 billion in daily clearing volume.
Ripple also worked with Boston Consulting Group on a report predicting that tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) will grow from $0.6 trillion today to nearly $19 trillion by 2033. The report details a phased adoption, starting with bonds and money market funds, then moving to real estate and credit. Ripple’s infrastructure, now expanded through Hidden Road, positions it to benefit from this trend.
Finally, Ripple settled its long-standing legal battle with the SEC for $50 million. This ends the uncertainty about whether XRP is a security in retail markets. With less regulatory pressure, improved infrastructure, and a strong fit for payments and tokenization, XRP is evolving into a utility-first asset, not just another speculative crypto.
