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In today’s edition,
- OpenAI’s scale, not profit
- Climate meets consumption
- Wall Street cools early
- AI model training under fire
- Tokens go mainstream
Market Snapshot
U.S. markets ended the week sharply lower amid renewed trade tensions, stubborn inflation, and weakening consumer sentiment. The Nasdaq dropped 4.01% to 17,322.99, the S&P 500 fell 2.40% to 5,580.94, and the Dow Jones slipped 1.41% to 41,583.90.
Markets began the week on stable ground, but sentiment turned after President Trump proposed a 25% tariff on all non-U.S.-made cars, raising fears of broader trade fallout. Inflation data added pressure, with core PCE rising 0.4% in February and real consumer spending barely up 0.1%, both suggesting the Fed’s fight with inflation isn’t over.
Consumer confidence slid for a fourth month, with the Conference Board’s index falling to 92.9 and expectations hitting a 12-year low. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index also fell, while inflation expectations jumped to 5.0%.
Business activity grew in March, with the S&P Global PMI at 53.5, but the outlook weakened. Firms cited concerns around demand and policy, while input costs rose at the fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by tariffs and higher staffing expenses.
Stock market closing data for the week of Mar 24th to Mar 28th, 2025
News Summaries
OpenAI is close to locking in a $40 billion funding round led by SoftBank, with other firms like Magnetar Capital, Founders Fund, Coatue, and Altimeter also in talks. The round, potentially the largest ever, would double OpenAI’s valuation to $300 billion from its last $157 billion in October. What’s driving this? Revenue projections are aggressive: from $3.7 billion in 2023 to $12.7 billion in 2024 and $29.4 billion in 2025. Yet OpenAI doesn’t expect to turn cash-flow positive until 2029, targeting $125 billion in revenue by then. The scale of spending on chips, data centers, and top-tier AI talent makes this less about near-term profit and more about long-term infrastructure bets. For SoftBank, already exposed through its Stargate JV with OpenAI, Oracle, and MGX, this is both a moonshot and a follow-through. As models slow in improvement but usage scales, the bet seems to be on dominance, not margins. The kind of capital flowing in hints at AI moving beyond early-stage frenzy into something more utility-like. Investors are banking not on invention, but on infrastructure. For readers, this signals a shift: the next chapter in AI may be less about breakthrough models and more about who owns the plumbing.
India’s air conditioner market is seeing a sharp rise, driven by rising heat, lifestyle shifts, and easier financing. Blue Star expects up to 30% growth this summer, especially in smaller cities. Yet, only 10% of Indian homes have ACs, far below China (68%) and Thailand (38%), per EY. The IEA projects 240 million units in India by 2030, up from 93 million in 2023. Around 40% of sales are financed, and affluent buyers are opting for smart, voice-enabled systems. Voltas, with 35% volume growth from April to January, is expanding into rural markets. With more heatwaves ahead, ACs are quickly becoming a necessity, but the long-term energy trade-off is something we’ll need to reckon with.
Jefferies kicked off Wall Street’s 2025 earnings season with a 4% drop in capital markets and investment banking revenue, missing expectations of a 10%+ gain. M&A advisory rose 17%, but reflects older deals, while current U.S. M&A volumes are down. Debt underwriting climbed, showing firms are still refinancing to lock in current rates. Credit spreads remain steady, suggesting no surge in market stress. Still, clients are holding off on major moves, waiting for clarity on trade, fiscal plans, and rate policy under Trump’s second term. Jefferies shares slid nearly 10%, and peers like Goldman and Morgan Stanley also fell. President Brian Friedman said caution has grown, with “fragility” clouding outlooks. The deal pipeline exists—but confidence, not opportunity, is the missing link.
Anthropic cleared an early legal hurdle when a California judge rejected a request from Universal Music Group and other labels. They wanted to stop the company from using copyrighted lyrics to train its AI chatbot, Claude. The music companies, representing artists like Taylor Swift and the Rolling Stones, claimed Claude copied lyrics from over 500 songs. However, the judge found no clear evidence of market or reputational harm. Anthropic had already agreed not to let its models produce infringing content. This ruling lets the training on copyrighted works continue for now. The broader case is still in progress, and the labels expect stronger claims during discovery. Similar lawsuits from The New York Times and Dow Jones show rising tensions between AI firms and content owners. The main issue remains unresolved: how to balance innovation with fair use and compensation. As AI models improve, creators will need better frameworks to protect and license their work in this new training era.
From the World of Crypto
Fidelity Investments is testing its own stablecoin, aiming to expand its digital asset footprint just as U.S. crypto regulation gains momentum.
Managed through its digital assets unit, the token is designed to function as cash in crypto markets. This follows Fidelity’s recent filing to tokenize a U.S. money market fund by May-end, entering a space where BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are already active.
The move comes as the political climate shifts. President Trump’s administration is pushing for regulation that supports dollar-backed stablecoins, with legislation expected by August. Currently, over $234 billion in stablecoins circulate globally, mostly issued offshore by firms like Tether. U.S. players are now racing to build onshore, regulated alternatives.
Fidelity is also exploring tokenised money market funds, interest-earning digital tokens used as collateral, already a $5 billion market. The firm sees tokenisation as a way to improve capital efficiency, especially in trading operations.
With giants like Fidelity entering, the lines between traditional finance and crypto are fading. What was once niche is now infrastructure. And the next phase won’t be about hype, it’ll be about who builds the rails for digital finance.
Fresh Reads: New Blogs to Explore
We’ve published fresh insights on the Vested Blog to help you stay informed on global trends, tax tips, and investment strategies. Here’s what you can read this week:
Recession Playbook
Where to Put Your Money When the Market Crashes
A practical guide to understanding downturns—exploring how to allocate wisely, protect capital, and spot long-term opportunities during volatile times.
TCS and Foreign Investments
How to Adjust TCS Against Salary TDS
If you’ve made foreign investments or spent on overseas travel, this blog breaks down how you can adjust your TCS against your salary TDS to avoid overpaying taxes.
Tesla vs. BYD
Is BYD About to Destroy Tesla?
An analysis of how China’s BYD is rising fast in the EV race and what that means for Tesla’s dominance and global electric vehicle trends.
Looking for more? Visit the Vested Blog for expert takes on markets, taxes, and personal finance.
