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The world is no stranger to pandemics. Over the past few years, we’ve watched as new viruses emerged, spread, and disrupted lives on an unprecedented scale. From COVID-19 to recurring bird flu outbreaks, the threat of zoonotic diseases—those that jump from animals to humans—has remained a persistent challenge for global health systems.
And now, vaccine makers are back in the spotlight.
Earlier this week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States confirmed the first human fatality linked to the H5 bird flu strain. The incident occurred in Louisiana, where an elderly individual with pre-existing health conditions succumbed to the virus. While the CDC was quick to reassure the public that the risk of widespread transmission remains low, the news triggered a ripple effect in the stock market.
Shares of vaccine manufacturers like Moderna and Novavax skyrocketed—gaining 11.6% and 10.8%, respectively. Even CureVac and Pfizer, both heavyweights in the pharmaceutical world, saw their stocks climb. Investors seem to be betting big on the possibility that these companies could play a pivotal role in combating the bird flu crisis.
But before we dive into what this means for vaccine makers, let’s take a closer look at the virus itself.
The H5 strain of bird flu isn’t new. It’s been around for decades, primarily affecting birds and occasionally spilling over into humans through direct exposure. Most human cases so far have been mild, with symptoms like fever and conjunctivitis. However, scientists warn that this could change. Viruses evolve, sometimes rapidly, and the fear of a mutation enabling sustained human-to-human transmission keeps public health officials on edge.
In the United States, the bird flu outbreak has already wreaked havoc, with over 900 cattle herds and countless poultry farms affected across 16 states. California, the hardest hit, even declared a public health emergency late last year. Meanwhile, similar outbreaks in Europe and Asia have prompted governments worldwide to ramp up their preparedness.
And that’s where vaccine makers come in.
Moderna, for instance, has been proactive. Last year, it secured a $176 million grant from the US government to expedite the development of an mRNA vaccine specifically targeting the bird flu virus. The company, which became a household name during the COVID-19 pandemic, is betting on its mRNA technology to replicate its earlier success. Novavax and CureVac have also joined the race, with bird flu vaccines in early development stages.
Even Pfizer, known for its robust vaccine portfolio, has announced plans to create a vaccine targeting the bird flu strain that’s already spreading among US livestock. The government, on its part, has stockpiled millions of doses of bird flu vaccines. However, these jabs remain on standby, awaiting approval for widespread use.
Now, this sudden spotlight on vaccines is a much-needed boost for an industry that has struggled since the pandemic’s peak. Take Moderna, for example. At the height of the COVID-19 crisis, the company’s revenues soared to $18.5 billion in 2021, marking a staggering 2,000% increase. But as the world moved on, demand for COVID-19 vaccines plummeted, dragging Moderna’s revenues down by 64% in 2023. Analysts project further declines this year, with losses expected to exceed $9 per share.
To navigate these challenges, Moderna has been diversifying its pipeline. The company is currently working on 45 products, with around 25% of them expected to hit the market within the next three years. It’s also implementing cost-cutting measures aimed at saving $1.1 billion by 2026.
But it’s not just about Moderna. The entire biotech sector has been in a rut. After the pandemic-induced boom, biotech stocks have faced three consecutive years of sluggish performance. Some analysts, however, see a silver lining. They believe advancements in artificial intelligence, coupled with breakthroughs in genetic therapies, could spark a revival in 2025.
So, is this renewed focus on bird flu vaccines a turning point for vaccine makers? Possibly. The current bird flu outbreak serves as a stark reminder that the threat of zoonotic diseases isn’t going away anytime soon. And while the immediate risk to humans might be low, the long-term stakes remain high.
For now, vaccine makers are stepping up, armed with cutting-edge technology and lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. Whether they can shine once again and deliver solutions that prevent the next global health crisis remains to be seen. But one thing is clear—the world is watching, and the stakes couldn’t be higher.
