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In today’s edition,
- AI meets access
- Jane Street: Scale meets precision
- Paid to wait
- Crypto meets compliance
Market Snapshot
U.S. stocks had a strong week, lifted by signs that U.S.-China trade tensions could be easing and a solid earnings season. The Nasdaq surged 8.29% to 17,382.94, the S&P 500 climbed 5.59% to 5,525.21, and the Dow added 3.10% to finish at 40,113.50. According to FactSet, nearly 73% of companies that reported earnings beat expectations, although trading volumes remained on the lighter side.
On the economic front, the mood was more cautious. Business activity slowed to a 16-month low, with the S&P Global PMI dropping to 51.2 as services pulled back. Durable goods orders looked strong on paper, up 9.2%, but most of that came from a spike in aircraft orders; excluding transportation, there was no real growth. Housing struggled too, with existing home sales falling 5.9% in March thanks to high mortgage rates.
Consumer sentiment slipped for the fourth straight month, and inflation expectations jumped to 6.5%, the highest level since 1981. Meanwhile, Treasuries gained as investors started pricing in slower growth ahead, and corporate bonds saw solid demand.
For now, markets are celebrating, but the cracks underneath are becoming harder to ignore.
Stock market closing data for the week of Apr 14th to Apr 18th, 2025
News Summaries
In a federal court hearing this week, Nick Turley, OpenAI’s ChatGPT lead, confirmed that the company is interested in acquiring Google’s Chrome browser. This could happen if a judge orders Alphabet to spin it off as part of the Justice Department’s antitrust actions. The trial focuses on Google’s dominance in search and could lead to the first court-ordered breakup of a major tech firm since the 1980s AT&T case. Turley stated that owning Chrome would help OpenAI provide a smoother “AI-first” user experience. This would address a key challenge: distribution. While OpenAI has seen success with iPhone integration, it has struggled on Android. Reports suggest Google is outspending competitors to secure pre-installs for its Gemini AI app. Turley warned that control over critical channels like browsers and app stores limits competition. This is true even as ChatGPT surpasses 400 million weekly active users. The real issue isn’t just browser ownership; it’s about who controls user access. If Chrome changes ownership, it could reshape how AI platforms reach users. OpenAI views this shift as both a chance and an equalizer.
Jane Street achieved a record $20.5 billion in net trading revenue in 2024. This is nearly double the prior year’s figure and exceeds that of Bank of America and Citigroup. Net income reached $13 billion, boosted by its growing global presence in ETFs, bonds, options, and currencies. Momentum is expected to carry on into 2025, with Q1 revenue estimated between $7.1 billion and $7.2 billion. This marks a 60% increase from the previous year, with net income projected at $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion. The firm runs efficiently with 2,960 employees, 37% of whom work in tech. Average compensation stands at $1.39 million, linked to the firm’s overall performance. Supported by $29.9 billion in equity, Jane Street also secured $1.35 billion in debt at 6.75% to fuel further growth. With a 24% share in US ETF primary markets and increasing fixed income volumes, it is more than a trading firm; it is evolving into a market platform. In a cost-cutting environment, Jane Street shows the results of aligning capital, technology, and discipline.
Warren Buffett, through Berkshire Hathaway, holds $300.87 billion in U.S. Treasury bills. This gives him control of 4.89% of the $6.15 trillion T-bill market as of March 2025. His position is larger than the Federal Reserve’s. Of this total, $14.4 billion is in near-cash, while the rest is in short-term Treasuries. With yields at 4.36%, Buffett prefers liquidity and safety over high valuations in public markets. He has parked over 90% of Berkshire’s $334 billion cash in government debt. He hasn’t made a major acquisition in two years because prices are unattractive. Despite the market downturn and others waiting for a signal, Buffett stays patient. He draws income from T-bills and looks for what he calls the “fat pitch.” When the right deals appear, he will be ready to act. Until then, he’s not betting on chaos — he’s betting on discipline.
From the World of Crypto
Coinbase is thinking about something big — applying for a U.S. federal bank charter. While nothing’s official yet, the company confirmed it’s actively considering the move. Why would a crypto exchange want a bank license? It’s simple: a charter would let Coinbase do a lot more than just hold crypto. We’re talking about taking deposits, issuing loans, and plugging directly into the traditional financial system — but under a much stricter regulatory lens.
They’re not the only ones exploring this route. Circle, Paxos, and BitGo — all big players in the stablecoin and custody space — are also reportedly eyeing banking licenses. There’s been a shift in tone from regulators lately. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said that it makes sense to create clear legal frameworks for stablecoins, especially as they start to play a bigger role in everyday payments. That’s where two bills come in: the STABLE Act and the GENIUS Act. One leans federal and cautious, the other leaves room for state-level flexibility and innovation. Both are a sign that Washington is finally paying attention.
We’ve seen this play out before. Anchorage Digital became the first crypto firm with a federal charter — though it’s now under investigation, showing that the trade-off for legitimacy is intense scrutiny. Still, having a banking license might be the next logical step for crypto firms that want staying power, not just hype.
If Coinbase goes ahead, it’s less about turning into a bank and more about blending the two worlds — crypto and traditional finance — in a way that gives them better reach, more control, and deeper trust. The irony? For a company built to challenge the system, the next big move might be joining it.
