$1 trillion, $1.4 trillion, $1.8 trillion, or more than $2 trillion. How much should Anthropic be valued?
Even the company’s investment bankers are still figuring it out. On 11th November, the Financial Times reported that Anthropic bankers are weighing up increasing the IPO valuation to $1.5 trillion or more.
So, the first question that came to mind is: can they do it after the price band is finalized and the issue is open for subscription?
Yes, if institutions show strong demand and the IPO is oversubscribed several times, bankers can do it. Under SEC Rule 430A, a deviation of up to 20% in the aggregate offering price can generally be accommodated without a new registration statement, subject to the rule’s conditions.
Strong IPO Demand; Issue Oversubscribed Multiple Times
A relatively lower-than-expected valuation appears to have fuelled strong investor interest in Anthropic’s IPO. By 11 November, a day after the price band was announced, the issue was already subscribed multiple times.
However, the strong subscription response also needs to be viewed in the context of the valuation investors are being offered. At the indicated IPO price range of $70-78, investors are getting an opportunity to participate in Anthropic’s growth story at a valuation that appears relatively reasonable against its 2028 revenue projections. The real test will be whether demand holds if bankers push for a higher price.
How Much Is the Market Paying for Future Growth?
Higher valuation should always be looked at in the context of financial performance and projected revenue growth.
- Trailing 12-month revenue: $35.3 billion
- Q3 2026 annualised revenue: $67.8 billion
- Projected 2028 revenue: $190-200 billion
Anthropic Valuation vs Revenue
| Valuation | Trailing 12-month Revenue ($35.3 billion) | Q3 annualised revenue ($67.8 bn) | 2028 revenue ($195 billion) |
| $1.25 trillion | 35X | 18X | 6.4X |
| $1.5 trillion | 43X | 22X | 7.7X |
| $1.75 trillion | 50X | 26X | 9X |
| $2 trillion | 57X | 30X | 10.3X |
The trailing 12-month revenue figure of $35.3 billion includes $2.04 billion from the December 2025 quarter and $33.24 billion earned in the first nine months of 2026. The annualized Q3 number assumes revenue of around $17 billion continuing at the same rate over the next four quarters.
The 2028 estimate assumes the mid-point revenue of $195 billion from the target range of $190 billion to $200 billion.
At $1.5 trillion, Anthropic is valued at 43 times its trailing 12-month revenue. But compared to 2028 projected revenue, the valuation falls to 7.7 times, which seems less demanding. But investors are effectively paying for growth today that Anthropic needs to deliver.
Beyond $1.5 Trillion: Decoding Anthropic’s IPO Valuation
Anthropic plans to sell 825 million shares at $70-78 each, according to the filing on 10 November. On the higher end of the range, Anthropic is valued at about $1.02 trillion based on outstanding shares and $1.4 trillion on a fully diluted basis. The latter implies some 18 billion fully diluted shares.
A price of approximately $84 per share would value the company at about $1.51 trillion on a fully diluted basis. That’s about 8% above the indicated top IPO price band.
Anthropic IPO Pricing Ladder
| Price per share | Fully diluted valuation | Premium to top of range | Multiple of 2028 projected revenue ($195bn) |
| $70 (bottom) | $1.26tn | -10% | 6.46x |
| $74 (midpoint) | $1.33tn | -5% | 6.83x |
| $78 (top) | $1.40tn | 0% | 7.20x |
| $84 | $1.51tn | 8% | 7.75x |
| $90 | $1.62tn | 15% | 8.3x |
The demand argument is also in favour of a higher price. The IPO is reportedly oversubscribed several times on the day of opening.
The forward revenue multiple also provides some justification. At $1.4-1.5 trillion, Anthropic would be trading at 7.2-7.7 times forward 2028 revenue.
However, the comparison comes with a caveat. In August, Reuters reported that bankers and investors were using two-year revenue forecasts to value Anthropic rather than the usual one-year forward estimates. So the valuation is very much dependent on Anthropic’s ability to deliver on its longer-term forecasts.
Growth Is Still Strong, But Losing Momentum
Anthropic’s growth trajectory is impressive, but growth has considerably slowed down. After posting 48% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, 130% in Q1 2026, and 147% in Q2 2026, the revenue growth slowed to 47% in Q3 2026.
Many analysts are projecting the growth to be in the high single-digit or lower double digit in the subsequent quarters.
Growth Curve Bending
| Period | Revenue | QoQ Change (%) |
| Q4 2025 | $2.04 billion | 48% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.7 billion | 130.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.6 billion | 146.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.0 billion | 46.6% |
| Q4 2026 (Projected) | $19.3 billion | 13.5% |
This has to be watched as Anthropic’s valuation is based on the assumption that revenue will scale rapidly over the next two years. To hit the $195 billion target by 2028, Anthropic needs to double revenue each year.
Not All Revenue May Be Equally Durable
Another issue is the quality and predictability of Anthropic’s revenue. A significant portion of Anthropic’s revenue is derived from consumption-based usage rather than from recurring subscriptions.
The first half of 2026 saw 80% of the revenue from usage fees and 20% from subscriptions. So revenue is very much a function of customer usage, price, and the introduction of new models.
Further, management stated that over 80% of the revenue in Q3 was attributable to the model versions launched in the previous 6 months. That clearly shows that customers are moving from one model to another, and the company therefore has to keep investing heavily in product development.
Profitability Has Yet to Catch Up With Growth
Anthropic hasn’t yet achieved the kind of steady operating profit quarter on quarter. They reported a GAAP operating profit of $974m in Q2 2026 and then an operating loss of $567m in Q3.
The third-quarter operating loss was largely due to higher compute costs. They had to spend $5 billion on compute bought through short-term commitments. Anthropic has acknowledged that short-term compute is more expensive on a per-unit basis and can compress profit margins.
Wide Gap Between Current Operating Margin and Long-term Target
For the first nine months of 2026, Anthropic’s GAAP operating margin stood at negative 4%, while the adjusted operating margin was 12%. Adjusted operating income was approximately $4.08 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic’s long-term adjusted operating margin target is above 35%. The gap between the current margin and the target is significant.
What Investors Should Watch Next
The company is expected to price the issue on 18 November, with shares being listed on Nasdaq on 19th November for trading.
It needs to be seen whether Anthropic can price its IPO above the indicative range without hurting investor demand. A few developments deserve attention.
Shares Available for Trading
In the IPO, 825 million shares will be offered to the public, representing approximately 6% of outstanding shares and less than 5% on a fully diluted basis.
According to the amended S-1, by early February 2027, around 14% of shares could become tradable as lock-in for initial employees and non-founder shares expire. It is expected to rise to 36% after full-year results, 53% after first-quarter 2027 results, and 90% after third-quarter 2027 results.
Anthropic Shares Lock-Up Schedule
| Release Milestone | Timeline / Trigger Event | Cumulative Tradable Share % | Key Drivers & Lock-Up Dynamics |
| IPO Close (Day 1) | Late 2026 | ~6% of outstanding (~4.6% fully diluted) | 825 million Class A shares available in the float. Up to 10% of lock-up securities held by non-founder directors, officers, and employees/consultants become eligible for early transfer on Day 1. |
| Tranche 1 | Early February 2027 | 14% of shares | Early release window opens for initial employee and non-founder tranches under market standoff terms. |
| Tranche 2 | Post Full-Year 2026 Results | 36% of shares | First major earnings-gated unlock following the public release of full-year 2026 audited financial statements. |
| Tranche 3 | Post Q1 2027 Results | 53% of shares | Over half of all shares become tradable following Q1 2027 financial disclosures as standard 180-day lock-up restrictions expire. |
| Tranche 4 | Post Q3 2027 Results | 90% of shares | Expiration of extended lock-up agreements (up to 365 days) governing co-founders and major holders (>0.5% pre-IPO holders) |
In case early investors, employees, and other shareholders decide to sell after lock-in expires, it would increase the supply of shares available for trading, potentially creating selling pressure. The market will therefore have to absorb a much larger pool of shares over time. How smoothly this supply is absorbed could influence the stock’s price performance in the months following its listing.
Fourth-quarter Revenue growth
Anthropic needs to sustain a steep growth trajectory to reach its 2028 revenue target. A meaningful slowdown from the third quarter’s 47% sequential revenue growth would raise questions about the assumptions underpinning the valuation.
Valuation Leaves Little Room For Disappointment
At $1.5 trillion, the company trades at approximately 43 times trailing revenue. The multiple falls to 7.7 times when measured against its projected 2028 revenue of $195 billion. Both numbers tell very different stories about the investment.
The forward valuation is based on Anthropic continuing its very strong growth, improving its operating margins, and managing its massive infrastructure spend. If it achieves all of those things, then the valuation today looks quite reasonable. If growth slows or margins don’t come in as expected, then the investors could be paying a significant premium for earnings that are still some way off—making it critical to understand how to invest in Anthropic IPO strategically before committing capital.